Candidates Round #11

Candidates Round 11

A big round. Nerves definitely played a role in the results of at least three of the games. Nerves will clearly be a major factor in the next three rounds.  

Anand won a "must-win" game against Karjakin. Caruana failed to win a very favourable position against Topalov. Aronian lost to Svidler after blowing a big position and Giri blew a completely won position to draw against Nakamura.

The standings change intriguingly with three rounds left.  Some of the salient points

1. Anand and Caruana are tied for the lead with +2.
2. Caruana is ahead on the first tiebreak (head-to-head results) with Anand. Caruana would have been sole leader if he had taken the full point against Topalov.
3. Karjakin is in third place with +1.  
4. Giri, Svidler and Aronian are on 50 per cent. A win from Giri today would have put him into joint third. Aronian has fallen back from +2  and his old weakness, twitchy nerves in title cycles is showing up. All three still have mathematical chances.
5. Topalov and Nakamura are out of it.
6. Anand has the better tiebreak versus Karjakin.

There are a huge number of possible outcomes with this narrow spread of points. I'm picking out a few possibilities below.

I don't think anybody can win three straight. In fact, I don't think anybody will score better than +1 in the last three rounds. This is based on the way the tournament has gone so far.

But tournament dynamics change as the tension mounts and a +2 score is not outlandishly unlikely.  A win against any of the three current leaders will have extra weight since it will knock out a contender as well as pushing the winner to the front.

Caruana seems best placed. His last three games are white vs Aronian, white versus Svidler and black versus Karjakin in the last round. The two whites give him an edge.

The last round game Karjakin Vs Caruana could be the humdinger that decides the tournament winner. Nerves would obviously count for much more than the colour split. But Caruana has also shown a tendency to take high risks with black and he's survived several dubious positions. Can he throttle back and play safely if that is what the situation demands?

Anand's last three games are as black versus Nakamura, white versus Giri, black versus Svidler. The two blacks could count against him - all his wins have come with white and his losses have come with black.

Anand has to win at least one of those three games to give himself a really good chance of winning the tournament. He has a personally poor score against Nakamura who is otherwise an obvious target. Will Anand come out swinging versus Naka?

Karjakin's last three games are as white versus Topalov, black versus Aronian, white versus Caruana. If he can beat Caruana in the last round, he would also be dominating Caruana on tiebreak. His fighting qualities are legendary and he would be pushing hard in that last game if he's in contention.

Aronian could break to the front again since he plays both Caruana and Karjakin in the last three rounds and therefore, he has the chance to beat both. The Armenian seems to have lost heart with successive losses to Anand and Svidler. But he might pick himself up again.  if he does, he could burst to the front, or play spoiler if he wins against one of the three leaders.

Svdiler could also play spoiler and move to the front, if he beats Anand and Caruana.  Giri also a chance to do this, by beating Anand and someone else. Neither has played with sufficient accuracy to inspire confidence in their ability to score +2  form the last three. But if either does run into seriously good form, he could be a dangerous contender. Either of them would have a good tiebreak assuming that +2 is scored. They would beat at least one of the current frontrunners.

The game Anand - Karjakin gave the lie to two oft-repeated canards about Anand.

Both are absurd but both are also repeated again and again.

One is that Anand lacks the nerves to do well in "must-win" situations. This is despite his having won the last game of a world title match against Topalov and beaten Gelfand in a world title tie-breaker.  You cannot get bigger "must-win" situations than that.

This game was another data-point. Anand needed to win since Karjakin is a key rival; He was coming off a bad loss in the previous round. He controlled his nerves, put the loss behind him and did it.  This pulls him back into joint first and also gives him the edge in possible tie breaks against Karjakin.

The second canard is equally absurd: Anand is a "technically weak" player.  He's won two difficult technical endgames in this tournament alone, against Aronian and Karjakin. It's true that he doesn't like playing technical positions much and especially true that he doesn't like defending pure technical positions. Also, his active style means that he usually doesn't have to rely on pure technique. But nobody - absolutely nobody - gets to be world champion without knowing how to play technical endgames.

A "small" novelty (10 Nxe5) has helped white gain a tiny edge. He controls d-file and his pieces are a little more active.  Opposite bishops can create drawing tendencies but they can also take absolute control of the squares that they respectively control.  Here, white has a serious grip on the dark squares. Having said all that, black is okay. His structure is solid enough and he can now look to free his pieces.

White now starts playing on both wings with a series of pawn pushes.  Black must have taken some sub-optimal decisions in the next stage though he doesn't make any outright errors.

21.-- g5 22.Rd6 Re8 23.Rad1 Be6 24.b3 Kf7 25.R1d4 Bf5 26.a4 Re7 27.g4 Bh7 28.b4 Bg8 29.b5 Rc8 30.Rd7 Rce8 31.b6 a6 32.Rc7 Kf8 33.c4 Be6 34.Rxe4 Kf7

By now, White is clearly on top and Black was also in time pressure. Anand made a pawn break that adds to the pressure.  

35.f4 Rxc7 36.bxc7 Rc8? (Engine analysis and the consensus opinion of the two players suggests 36.-- f5 is a strong defensive try. After white gets in f5 next move, black is lost)

37.f5 Bd7 38.h4 g6 39.Rd4 Rxc7 40.hxg5 fxg5 41.Bxg5 Be8 42.f6 Kf8 The passer on c7 has been traded for a deadly passer on f6. White maintains his grip on the d and e files. Black also has to defend his two back ranks. He can't.  

White has a couple of clear wins here. One is 43. Rd8 Rd7 44. Rb8, which ties black down to defend b7. Another  is 43. Bh6+ Kf7 44. Re4 Rc8 (black can only wait) 45. Bg5 Rc7 46. Kf2 Kf8 47. Bh6+ Kf7 48. Bf4 Rd7 49. g5 . The bishop may settle on d6 squelching any activity.  

White did latch onto the b7 pawn and he activated his king.  But it took longer for him to switch his bishop around than in the above variations. Also he had to watch out for black getting counterplay via Rh3 or Rh1.

Black played 57.-- a5 here. If he does nothing,  variations like 57...Be6 58.Kg3 Bd5 59.a5 Be6 60.Bh4 Bd5 61.Re1 Be6 62.Rb1 Kc7 63.Bg5 Bc4 64.Bf4+ indicate how white will break in anyhow.  Black's pieces are just not active enough to meet threats on both sides of the board.

The game ended 58.Kg3 Rf7 59.Kf4 Rh7 60.Re1 Kc8 61.Kg3 Rf7 62.Re8+ Kd7 63.Ra8 Kc7  The tactical trick 64. Rxa5? Kb7 saves the a-pawn. But the black king has been pulled over to the queenside. There is no way to stop white's king marching in.with 64.Kf4 Rd7 65.Bh4 Kb7 66.Re8 Bf7 67.Re4 Bd5 68.Re3 Bf7 69.Kg5 Ka6 70.Re7 (1-0).

Topalov played a speculative exchange sacrifice against Caruana and got plenty of compensation. But he messed it up and Caruana got on top.  

I

Here black can take it away with 36...Bxf4 37.exf4 f5 38.a4 Kf8 39.b4 Rhh1 40.a5 Ra1+ 41.Kb3 Ke7 or some such. The pawn storm on the queenside will be blocked and then black's rooks will take over. But the Don was living on 30 seconds increment and he played

36.--  Be7 37.e4 Bc5 (Note the nasty little concealed attack on Rc1) 38.e5 Re1 39.Rc2 g5 40.Bxg5 Rxe5 41.Bf6 Rd5 Caruana gets past the time control and offers a draw!? What is more, Topalov who famously doesn't offer draws on principle takes it !  (½–½)

The position is unclear after 42.Be4 Rdh5 43.b4 Bf8 but black can't be worse. In fact, he's better. Did Caruana miscalculate or lose his nerve?

Giri couldn;t have been nervous in the following position. But he may have been tired and over-confident. Namakura is dead lost and 50. Re5 would have driven that point home  

White played 50. Nxg7?? Qxg7 51. Rg3 Rg5! Obviously Giri missed 52. hxg5 Qxd4 and he's lucky that the forced 52. Rxg5 hxg5 53. Qxd5 is drawn (1/2-1/2) after 53.-- Ne7 54. Qxb5 gxh4 55. Qh5

Aronian had a big plus against Svidler

 
Black should not survive this. There's strong pressure versus the K-side. The dark squares have holes and g6, f7 are weak. If the monster on e5 is exchanged, there will be intolerable pressure down the f-file. Plus, there's play down the b-file.

But white played really badly and drifted into a losing position. More or less a free point for Svidler who suddenly generated a winning counter-attack.

Candidates Round #10

The big game of this round was of course, Caruana's demolition of Anand.  It was a very impressive demonstration of excellent preparation, courage and excellent calculation. In fact, the "Don" played like the vintage Anand.

In the other games, Karjakin played out a flat technical draw against Giri (who remains unbeaten with =10).  For a while  Aronian had a large edge against Topalov but he could make nothing of it and they ultimately ended up with a ridiculously blocked position and a draw. Svidler had an edge with white versus Nakamura and for a brief while, he had an extra pawn. But he allowed a spectacular perpetual check.

That set of results puts Caruana into the joint lead with Karjakin, with both placed on +2 with four games to play. Anand and Aronian share 3rd-4th on +1. Anand has a poor tiebreak even if he ties either or both of Karjakin and Carlsen because his head-to-head score is minus against them. The other strike against Anand is that he has two blacks in his last three games.

There were three English Openings today while Karjakin opened with his usual Reti. This sort of amorphous system 1.c4 with its multiple transpositional possibilities fits well with post-modern chess. It leads to interesting and often under-explored positions and play can go in many directions. The play can range all the way from violently tactical and very strategically unbalanced to very quiet.

Anand tried a system that he's played a couple of times before and one that his second, Gajewski has also played. In hindsight, this is asking for trouble given that Caruana's current second is  Rustam Kasimdzhanov who worked with Anand through two world championship cycles. (Peter Heine Nielsen was also a long-time Anand second before he switched allegiance to Magnus Carlsen.) 

Make what you will of those relationships and the way they have changed. It is more or less impossible to shoot for top rankings without a backup team, There are also not that many players who are strong enough and creative enough to provide a serious edge for somebody with title aspirations. So, finding somebody from within that small pool who has worked with a former world champion in his heyday is certainly useful. Especially useful if that former champ is still a formidable practitioner...

Kasimdzhanov apparently found the novelty 12. Qc2 and from that stage in the game, Anand was behind in time as well as being under some pressure on the board.

White doesn't intend to recover the pawn just yet. He's going to build a big centre and try and push black off the board. At some stage, the bishop pair will start to count as well.  

Anand found a reasonable and pragmatic move in 12.-- h6 but he started taking more time at this stage  Play went 12.Qc2 h6 13.Bf4 Ne4 14.Rad1 Bf5 15.Ne5! Nd6 There's a lot to calculate since  15.-- Nxg3 16. e4 Nxf1 17. exf5 Nxh2 is a mess. White can smash the pawn structure with 18. Nxc6 bc6 before capturing h2. This is very unclear. The computer says it is equal. Most humans would prefer to play white (bishop pair and smashed black pawns). Nobody would like to play this position unprepared against a well-prepared opponent.

16.e4 Bh7 17.Qe2 Ne7

 

This position is going to be analysed a lot in amateur forums. Grandmasters will probably look to improve on 17. -- Ne7 or even earlier.  There are distinct reasons why white might seek a knockout punch here. He has much better placed pieces, more space and open lines against  black's king. There's an old saying "Three pieces make mate" and white tries to prove it with 18.Bxh6!  gxh6 19.Qh5  

White has a big attack with Ng4/ Nf7 and Rf1-f4, etc. Black returned the piece with 19.-- Nef5  (the right idea, returning the piece, in order to  play Qg5. But it may be better to go Nd5 since the d-5 pawn is less destructive than the f6 pawn. ) 20.exf5 Qg5 21.Qxg5+ hxg5 22.f6! This is horrible for black - he has weaknesses in multiple areas (along h1-a8, c4, g5), he lacks piece coordination and he is squeezed for space.

Now white's just winning and Caruana played flawlessly. If black tries 25.-- Rab8 26. Bc6 Red8 27. Bxb5 Rxb5 28. Nc6 Ra8 29. Rxc4 is also very convincing. As Fischer once said in a similar position, the pawns are like ripe apples.

The game concluded  25.-- Rad8 26.Bc6 Nxd4 27.Bxe8 Rxe8 28.Kf2 Nc2 29.Red1! (uses the back rank threat to rescue the piece and avoid the fork of Nf3+)  Be4 30.Nxc4 Re6 31.Rd8+ Kh7 32.Kg1! Rxf6 33.Rf1!  White forces the exchange of rooks and that ends any chance of counterplay. After 33. -- Rxf1+ 34. Kxf1 Nb4 (hoping for Bd3+) 35. Ne5! There's a threat of Rd4. So Anand resigned (1-0)

Svidler has an extra pawn in the given position

He can keep it with something like 25. Bc3. The queen on the long white diagonal stops perpetuals and white maybe able to make something of the extra material.  Instead he played 25.Qxb6 Rh4! 26.gxh4 Qg4+ 27.Kh1 Qf3+ 28.Kg1 Qg4+ 29.Kh1 Qf3+ 30.Kg1 Qg4+ (½–½).

Aronian had what looked like a near-winning advantage against Topalov

All white's pieces are markedly more active. He has a grip on the e-file and a grip on the centre with that c4,d4 formation, He also has targets on a5,b7 But Aronian couldn't break through and Topalov gradually eased the pressure.  The final position is absurd. Black could sacrifice a piece on h4 just for the heck of it,

Karjakin -Giri had some points of nuanced interest for the theorists since it involved a topical variation of the Slav Meran. I'll give it a miss because it never looked like going anywhere except a draw.

Candidates Round #9

The standings at the top changed as Anand picked off Aronian in an epic rook endgame.  Meanwhile Anish Giri split the point with Fabiano Caruana after the Dutchman missed multiple wins. The bottom-ranker Nakamura made a brave attempt to knock out Sergey Karjakin but Karjakin's fine sense of danger kept him out of trouble. The other bottom-ranker, Topalov had a far better position against Svidler but he couldn't quite put it away.

There are five rounds left and there is a very narrow spread at the top of the scoreboard. Karjakin and Anand lead with +2, while Caruana and Aronian share 3rd-4th with +1.  The maths indicates that any of these four could win and so could Giri (even score with 9 draws! ). Even Svidler (-1) has a mathematical chance of winning. Only Nakamura (-2) and Topalov (-3) appear to be completely out of it .

Anand has relied on 1.e4 with white through this event. This has meant a sequence of Spanish Anti-Berlins, and an Anti-Marshall against Svidler. Aronian always defends with 1. e4 e5 and he also plays the Marshall and the Berlin. The Anand -Aronian matchups have seen some heavily "booked" battles over the years with the Armenian winning brilliantly from the black side of the Spanish on at least two occasions.

This time, Anand pulled off  a major surprise. He played the Italian; the Quiet Game aka La Guioco Piano.  The Piano gives very little but it postpones the battle to the middlegame.

This fits with the "post-modern" attitude. Getting a crushing opening advantage is very hard when both parties have ample time, strong programs and big databases  at their disposal. So the post-moderns - Carlsen, Karjakin. Nakamura - rely on surprise and understanding. They are happy to get roughly equal positions which they understand better and which their opponents have not studied in great depth. The real battle happens in the middlegame and the endgame.

This is the sort of position the great Mikhail Botvinnik flagged as an exception to the normal rules of evaluating good bishops and bad bishops. Normally a good bishop is a piece operating in cooperation with its pawns on squares of the opposite colours. That way, the bishop  is not blocked by its own pawns and the pawns can control squares of the other colour. Here, black has the better bishop by those rules.  However white has a huge edge in space and his bishop  is parked on the very best possible square, dominating both long diagonals. With heavy pieces on the board, black is liable to get squashed.  The pressure should soon translate into something more concrete.  It does.

Engines consistently underestimate the white edge in this sort of position. There are no major tactics to consider but white's space advantage makes it very unpleasant for black to defend.

White has several plans to try and increase his edge. Meanwhile black can only wait and hope that white does not find a plan that works.  In analogy, black's defensive task is like a cricket team trying to bat out two days in a test match, while "chasing" a target of 650. There is no hope of winning and a draw will require perfect concentration for hour after hour.  

Here, white could for example, try to pile up on the c-file, hitting c7. He could push his kingside pawns with h4,g5 etc., to create some targets there. He could also do what he did, which is to activate his king and generate mobile kingside passed pawns. This is deadly.   

A long forced or "semi-forced" sequence follows. Either Black lets White get in Kf5 "for free" or he allows this liquidation.  If white gets in Kf5 without Rxe4 being played, he will have the additional possibilities of g4,h4, g5 or even e5 at some stage. That will be a process of slow strangulation. Instead black opted for a pawn race.

38.Kg4! Rxe4 39.Rxg7+ Kc8 40.Rd2 Kb8 41.Rc2 Rc8 42.Ra2! Rd4 43.Kf5 Rxd5+ 44.Kxf6 Rf8+ 45.Rf7 Rxf7+ 46.Kxf7 Rf5+ 47.Kg6 Rxf4 48.g3! Rc4 49.Kxh6 d5

The win is clear. White's passers run easily while black's pawns are clumsy. Also white's king is much more active and that counts. But Anand played somewhat inaccurately in that he could probably win easier by running the h-pawn with 50. Kg5 d4 51. h4 d4 52. Rd2! Rxa4 53. h5 Rb4 54. h6 Rxb5+ 55. Kg6  Rb1 56. Rxd3 Rh1 57. g4 etc. with white multiple tempos ahead in the race.

However what Anand did was quite good enough 50.Kh5 d4 51.g4 d3 52.h4 Rd4 53.Rd2 Kc8 54.g5 Kd7 55.Kg6 Rxh4 56.Rxd3+ Ke8 57.Ra3 Rc4 58.Kg7 Kd7 59.g6 c6 60.Kf6 cxb5 61.g7 Rg4 62.axb5 Rg1 63.Rd3+ Ke8 64.Re3+ Kd7 65.Re5 Rxg7 66.Rd5+ (1–0).

This by the way is the sort of game that would repay very careful study. It involves several clever transference of advantages to go into a winning rook endgame and sharp calculation is required in the final stages.

 

Giri - Caruana saw black playing a high-risk line all over again. On move 14. Caruana opted to sacrifice his kingside pawns presumably in the hopes that the white pawn on h7 would actually protect his king on h8. This is a similar idea to his game with Nakamura. And, as against Nakamura, Caruana has counter-play against an exposed king. But it probably wasn't enough.

There are long-term imbalances here. White has multiple extra pawns and a huge centre and black's king is not exactly safe. However, Black has the bishop pair and obvious chances of hitting the White king from several directions. There are no instant knockouts for either side but there are many tactical themes to be watched.

White can play the calm 24. Ke1 here. That unpins Nf4 and creates counter-threats of Rh5 or 24. Ke1 Bxe5? 25. Ng6+. it probably wins.

After 24. Rd4 ?! Rxd4 25. Qxd4 Bxe5 , black is still fighting and indeed, Caruana pulled off a great save after 96 moves. It was a superb game and well worth  the effort of deep analysis.

 

Karjakin played his pet variation of the Queens Indian for the fourth time (!) which is really tempting fate or making an emphatidc statement about the depth of his preparation and his confidence in the position.

Nakamura seemed to be improving on Topalov's game
Here White tries the ambitious 14.Nxe4 dxe4 15.Nd2 Bxa2 16.Bxe4 Bxb1 17.Qxb1 Now if the rook moves, 17.-- Rc8 18. Bxh7+ should give White  plenty of play. But Karjakin just played 17.-- Nf6! 18.Bxa8 Qxa8 19.e4 Rd8 20.Be3 Ng4 21.h3 Nxe3 22.fxe3 a5 23.bxa5 Qxa5 and there are no worries for him. It turned into an entertaining tactical slugfest after that and finally simplified into flat equality.

Topalov seemed to get a huge edge out of the opening against Svidler. He had the bishop pair and play against unstable, exposed black pieces. 

Here White missed a simple win with 32. Be2! Nxe5 33. Bxb5 ab5 34. Re1 and one of the  hanging black pieces will be picked up with an easily won endgame. Alternately 32. Be2 Rb3 33. Bxd3 Rxd3 34. Rc1 Bb7 35. Rc7 with a blistering attack.

Topalov was not in time-trouble, and he is a tactician par excellence,  So the explanation for the miss must lie in the domain of psychology.